Predict
Yes or No on what happens next, on Polymarket's markets and Hyperliquid's.
Predict trades Polymarket's markets, and Hyperliquid's own prediction markets beside them (each marked with Hyperliquid's logo). Every market is a question with outcomes, each priced between 1¢ and 99¢. A share of the outcome that happens pays $1; the others pay nothing. The price is roughly the chance the market gives it, so a share bought at 30¢ that comes in pays a little over 3×.
Finding a market
Predict opens on what's trending. Each category keeps loading as you scroll, through every open market, and narrows by subcategory with the chips under its title (Soccer, NBA and Tennis under Sports; Up or Down by how long a window runs). Besides the topics (politics, crypto, sports, economy and more) there are lists noct puts together:
- Breaking: what moved most in the last day.
- Up or down: short markets on whether a coin ends a window higher.
- Combos: several calls on one ticket.
- Esports: every game, with live matches and their broadcasts.
- Rewards: markets that pay for waiting orders.
- Disputed: markets whose result is being challenged.
Cards or a table. On a computer, a category can be shown as cards or as a table (the switch beside its title, or Settings › System › Predict): a row a market with its chance, the day's move, volume, liquidity, rewards and when it ends. Search it, filter it (ends within, traded today, liquidity, chance, paying rewards), sort it by any column or from Sort (ending soonest, moved most, closest to 50/50 and more), and Reset puts it back. Rewards opens as a table by default.
Any market can be hidden with the eye on its page; it leaves every list and search until you show it again from Hidden.
A market
- The chart shows each answer's chance over a day, a week, a month or all time. noct traders who hold it appear as faces where they bought.
- The book and trades sit beside it.
- The tabs under the chart:
- Answers: every answer with its chance, a press to trade it.
- Holders: switch between On noct (everyone on noct holding a call here, their P&L, entry and thesis, with Copy) and All holders (the biggest holders of each side on Polymarket). Each name opens their trader card.
- Comments: what people are saying on Polymarket, with what each commenter holds on the market as a green or red chip, and their GIFs.
- Rules: how Polymarket will resolve it, and the source.
The market's name in the header opens the markets beside it: other windows running now for an Up or Down market, the rest of its category otherwise.
Buying and selling
You buy at the best price on Polymarket's book, and can sell back at any time before the market resolves, for more or less than you paid. When you hold shares the ticket opens on Sell.
- Market: buys now from the book.
- Limit: names your price in cents. Whatever's offered at that price or better fills at once; the rest waits on the book until it fills or you cancel it. Your waiting orders are under the ticket.
When the market resolves, winning shares are worth $1 each. Press Collect to bring them into your balance, or turn on auto-collect.
Up or down
Short markets on whether a coin, gold or silver ends a window higher than it started: 5 minutes, 15 minutes, an hour, a day. Daily ones also run on stocks, indices, currencies and commodities (NVDA, the S&P 500, USD/MXN, oil), settled on Pyth's price as Polymarket publishes it. The screen shows the price to beat, the live price and the time left, recent results and the windows coming next, and moves on to the next window when one ends. 5- and 15-minute windows settle on Chainlink's price (gold and silver on Chainlink's XAU/USD and XAG/USD), hourly and daily ones on Binance's. A tie is Up.
Combos
Several calls on one ticket, paying only if every one comes in, at a better multiple than any of them alone. Calls that can't both happen aren't allowed together. The price comes from Polymarket's market makers and holds for a few seconds.
Esports
Every game Polymarket lists matches on (CS2, Dota 2, League of Legends, Valorant and more), each with its own page: the match being played now with its broadcast and live trades, then every match by league, and the props. A tournament under way has an event page of its own. A price opens its market.
Rewards for waiting orders
On many markets Polymarket pays limit orders for waiting near the price: a daily rewards pool for orders within a few cents of the midpoint, a rebate from the fees takers pay, and on some markets a holding reward. The limit ticket says whether yours qualifies. Every paying market is listed with its terms (the day's pool, max spread, min shares) in Predict's Rewards category, as a table to sort by any of them. What Polymarket has paid you, your taker tier and how close the next one is are on Rewards › Polymarket. Polymarket sets and pays these, not noct.
Your open orders update the moment they're placed, filled or cancelled on Polymarket, and your balance and positions with them.
Polymarket restarts its matching engine now and then for maintenance, usually announced a couple of days ahead. While it's restarting noct tries your order again for a few seconds, then tells you nothing was traded. For two minutes after, Polymarket takes only limit orders that wait on the book, so a market order is refused until then.
Who settles it
Polymarket resolves every market by its published rules, not noct. A proposed result can be disputed; then UMA's voters decide, usually within a few days, and the market carries a Disputed badge.